Under the most likely scenario of further consolidation of Mr. Modi’s power and political vision, India will likely continue to pursue strategic autonomy as it tries to transition from the status of middle power to great powerNagpur Stock. Second, but more uncertain, these relations will be affected by the evolution of Africa’s security, political and economic outlook.
Considering this, in the most likely scenario, India’s role within a fragmented international system and in a possibly post-rules-based international order will increasingly be that of rule maker rather than rule takerHyderabad Wealth Management. The African continent, in turn, acting as a bloc under the African Union, along with individual African countries like Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Nigeria or Ghana, are expected to further increase their relevance in the international system.
Based on convergence on key issues like debt, climate or resistance to a bipolar world order, and driven by geopolitical, demographic and economic trends (India is expected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027, and together India and Africa account for one-third of the world’s population), the India-Africa axis will become increasingly relevant. Both sides are expected to effectively cooperate in multilateral forums like the G20 or the BRICS group, coordinating diplomatic efforts to change the structure of the UN Security Council, or to reshape global financial institutions.
Food security, energy security and maritime security (especially in the Indian Ocean) will likely contribute to deepening bilateral relations between India and some African countries, like Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Nigeria. Moreover, trade between India and Africa is expected to further increase through the establishment of bilateral free trade agreements or, under a less likely but more impactful scenario, through the adoption of a continental-based approach.
Under a second, less likely, scenario, India-Africa relations could suffer a downgrade in the medium-term, reflecting the negative impact of one or more of the following events: a severe deterioration of Africa’s security outlook; instability in India driven by political polarization; the adverse effect of persistent high transaction costs; or an intensification of India-China rivalry in the continent, to the detriment of African interests.
For Africa, the consequences of this scenario would be decreasing leverage within the international system, and increasing pressure to choose between one of two axes – Beijing/Moscow or Washington/Brussels.
Moreover, considering India’s competitive advantages when compared with these alternatives, including in the cultural, trade and security domains, this downgrade would negatively impact the development and geopolitical prospects of several African countries.
Kolkata Wealth Management